Haaretz - Israel News - Victory in Israel-Palestinian war is determined by the other side s mistakes

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News Updates	Thu., April 08, 2004 Nisan 17, 5764	Israel Time: 02:04 (GMT+2)

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Victory in Israel-Palestinian war is determined by the other side's mistakes

By Amos Harel

Two and a half weeks after the assassination of its leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, Hamas continues to search for a flaw in Israel's defense system to enable to it to perpetrate what it regards as a suitable act of retribution.

In past days, Israeli security forces have stopped a number of attempts to carry out attacks in Israeli territory. Yet such success of anti-terror operations must be put in perspective: any interpretation which refers to the failure of Palestinian terror groups can only have temporary validity.

It is clear to all who deal with anti-terror activity that Hamas' failure is a passing phase. Sometime in the future - perhaps shortly after these words are printed - a terrorist will manage to penetrate Israel's walls of defense, whether due to cunning and wile or a mistake by Israeli security forces. Nonetheless, if Hamas had faced the same situation two years ago, it would have had an easier time carrying out a revenge attack.

Brigadier General Eli Yaffe this week completed a two and a half year term at one of the IDF's most important posts - head of the General Staff's Operations Branch - has a clear view of what has changed during the past two years. He attributes the improved ability to thwart terror attacks to a combination of IDF freedom to detain suspects in West Bank cities, the blow delivered to the terror infrastructure on the West Bank, and the fence that closes off the Gaza Strip and the other one being built on the West Bank.

"The interrogations and arrest operations on the West Bank provide the intelligence that enables us to thwart terror attacks," Yaffe told Haaretz. "Each week, between 100 and 150 terror suspects are arrested on the West Bank. At the same time, the speed and efficiency of branches of the defense establishment have been enhanced. The moment we receive information about a suicide bomber, our ability to identify his likely movements, and to isolate him, is much greater today than in the past."

During 40 months of intifada, the IDF records show that 943 Israelis have been killed, compared to 2,720 Palestinians. Some 6,300 Israelis have been wounded and four times that number of Palestinians were wounded - 25,000.

A breakdown of the data carried out by the General Staff's Operations branch vividly illustrates the partial, but significant, success of Israel's war on terror. One set of data refers to terror attacks within the Green Line on a quarterly basis. During the first quarter of the year 2002, the number of terror attacks (shooting attacks, car bombs, suicide bombers) within the Green Line was 40; during the first three months of 2004, the figure was only 5.

Also, in recent months, 10 would-be terror attacks have been thwarted for every one or two which succeeded. In contrast, in March 2002 (the month preceding the IDF's Operation Defensive Shield), 17 suicide bombers successfully carred out their intentions, while only eight were caught.

In light of these figures, Yaffe rejects last December's claim by Shin Bet chief Avi Dicther regarding the defense establishment's inability to supply protection to citizens. Even after a weekend during which 26 Hamas men were detained in the Nablus area, but a terrorist managed to infiltrate the Aveni-Hefetz settlement, and kill one civilian, Yaffe insists that the IDF's and the Shin Bet's revised operations in the field have helped reduce terror.

"We have seriously reduced the scope of the terror groups' organizational activity. The organizations' infrastructures cannot today operate freely - the militants today operate under the threat of being pursued and caught."

Referring to Israel's selective assassinations policy, Yaffe stated: "It is possible to get to anyone. It takes time, patients and the setting of priorities. Each and every terrorist - even the most cautious and sophisticated - make mistakes.

"For instance, Yassin's bodyguards erred when they tried to take him from the mosque to his home. For our part, we must know how to exploit the mistakes."

Brigadier General Eli Yaffe